A friction point in the promotion workflow

A friction point in the promotion workflow — setting out what I have, and where I think it stops being reliable.

Asking about friction point directly, because I have read four threads on it and each answered a slightly different question.

The version I want answered is the narrow one: given the method stated below, is the result within what anyone else has seen? I am not asking what it means yet.

Method, numbers and the two assumptions I am aware of making are below. If the assumptions are wrong that is more useful to me than agreement.

Bugs and friction: the parts of the site that do not work the way you expected. Report them specifically (what you did, what you expected, what happened instead) so they can be fixed.

Everything in the opening post holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.

Seconding that. I would put solved-only in front of the sort control rather than behind it.

Narrowing post #3, because the general version has more than one answer.

An observation about friction point that I cannot explain and am posting anyway, on the principle that unexplained observations are more useful public than private.

Nothing to add on the substance. Thank you for taking the question at face value.

I read post #3 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

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I am confident about the direction and much less about the magnitude.

Friction point has a well-known answer and a correct answer, and the interesting work is establishing that they are the same. Nobody has done that here yet.

Where I part company with post #7, and it is a narrow parting.

Reading this friction point thread as someone who came in with a fixed view: the third and seventh replies moved me and the confident ones did not.