Prediction intervals and why they are more honest than confidence intervals Writing it up because I had to work it out twice and would rather nobody else did.
Prediction intervals — I have the observation and I do not trust my interpretation of it, so I am posting the observation and holding the interpretation back.
Numbers, method and the conditions under which they were collected are below. Interpret them however they warrant.
A note on scope: what I am saying about Prediction intervals applies to the case in the first post and I would not extend it further without checking.
The opening post describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.
A tighter confidence interval around a meaningless centre is worse than a wide interval around a meaningful one. Precision is not the objective.
The answer changed when I changed how I was measuring, which was informative.
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