Posting this under the heading it deserves: Critiquing an observational claim about a class effect Everything below is what sits behind that.
I was wrong about critiquing an observational claim in a thread last spring and I would like to correct it publicly rather than quietly.
The error was in the units, which changed the conclusion by an order of magnitude. Setting out the corrected version, and the way I now check for that class of mistake.
Sample size calculated on an optimistic effect estimate produces a trial that is underpowered for the effect that actually exists. That is visible in the protocol.
Confirming the opening post from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.
Choosing the worst interpretation: "The confidence interval includes a harmful effect" is true if the CI goes from -1 to +5. But assuming the worst-case scenario is not how you use the evidence. The point estimate and the precision both matter.
If anyone has run this properly I would rather read that than my own guess.
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Immortal time bias in a claims-database study
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Confounding by indication, explained with a concrete example
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A claim built entirely on a subgroup analysis
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A critique that turned out to be unfair, retracted by its author
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About the Study critique category
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Reporting a disappointing outcome, and why it belongs here
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