Insurance and replacement policies, compared

On the subject in the title: Insurance and replacement policies, compared Working notes rather than a conclusion.

I have spent a fortnight trying to pin insurance and replacement policies down and I want to set out where I have got to, because I suspect the honest answer is duller than the thread this will produce.

What I have: a consistent observation across a small number of cases, collected the same way each time. What I do not have: any controlled comparison, or any reason to think my cases are representative.

The specific question is whether the pattern survives once the obvious confounder is removed. I cannot remove it with what I have.

Where I part company with the opening post, and it is a narrow parting.

Two questions I would want answered before drawing anything from the insurance and replacement policies data above: how were the cases selected, and what happened to the ones that dropped out.

Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.

Caveat: everything above assumes the paperwork is what it says it is.

Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.

I am confident about the direction and much less about the magnitude.

Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.

The conclusion is tentative; the arithmetic underneath it is not.

The thing about insurance and replacement policies that took me longest to accept is that a plausible mechanism is not evidence of an effect. It is a reason to look, not a result.

The arithmetic in post #6 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

Posting my insurance and replacement policies numbers with the method attached so they can be discounted properly. Uncontrolled, unblinded, and collected by someone who wanted a particular answer.

Good question, well framed, and I would like to see it answered properly.

An honest declaration on insurance and replacement policies: I have a prior here and it is strong enough that you should weight what I say downward. Stating it rather than hiding it.

Document outcomes rather than forecasting them. A forecast in this category reads as reassurance and is not one.

Flagging that the sources on this are thinner than the confidence in the thread suggests.

I had written a reply contradicting post #12 and deleted it. Here is what survived.

Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.

If this contradicts something upthread, the upthread version may well be the better one.

Confirming post #12 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.

The strongest argument against my own position on insurance and replacement policies, stated as well as I can state it, since nobody else has yet.