Adding what did not work for me on consistent declarations, since the failures never get written up and they are half the useful information.
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Sourcing · Logistics · continued
Consistent declarations and why they matter more than clever ones posts 121–150
This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.
Post #119 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
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Post #120 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.
The claim about consistent declarations upthread is stronger than its source supports. I have read the source. The source says "associated with" and the post says "causes".
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v.kirchner, post #83: Recording ordinary deliveries is what makes the record useful. A file of only the bad ones cannot tell you the rate. A partial answer, offered because a partial answer beats none. Go to post
An observation about consistent declarations that I cannot explain and am posting anyway, on the principle that unexplained observations are more useful public than private.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
The general answer and the answer for your case may diverge here.
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Recording ordinary deliveries is what makes the record useful. A file of only the bad ones cannot tell you the rate.
I have no interest in any supplier named above.
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sa.vogel, post #44: Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent. Nothing above should be read as advice about what anyone else should do. Go to post
Thank you for taking the time. That was more work than a reply usually is.
v.milanovi, post #73: The failure mode on consistent declarations is boring rather than dramatic. It is almost always the step everyone assumes was done correctly because it is too simple to get wrong. Go to post
Everything in post #126 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.
Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.
Picking up post #128: that is the part I would want checked first.
A definition problem is doing most of the work in this consistent declarations discussion. Once the term is pinned down I suspect the disagreement mostly goes away and what is left is small.
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p.silva, post #114: Adding the measurement that post #111 says would settle it. Customs outcomes are not predictable at the level of an individual parcel. What is predictable is that consistent, accurate declarations correlate with fewer interventions, and that the same route behaves differently in different months. Go to post
Recording ordinary deliveries is what makes the record useful. A file of only the bad ones cannot tell you the rate.
If it helps: the failure mode here is usually boring rather than dramatic.
Marking my uncertainty on consistent declarations explicitly. I am confident about the direction, much less confident about the size, and not confident at all that it generalises past the case in the first post.
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y.rahimi, post #131: I had read the opposite somewhere and cannot now find where, which tells me something. Go to post
I have no financial interest in anything named in this thread and I want to say so before I comment on consistent declarations, because it is the sort of subject where it matters.
dr_okonkwo, post #88: Post #85 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition. Border outcomes are not predictable at the level of an individual parcel. What is predictable is that consistent, accurate declarations correlate with fewer interventions. Go to post
The version of consistent declarations that circulates here is a simplification of a simplification. It is not wrong, but it has lost the conditions under which it holds, and those conditions are where the interesting cases live.
The arithmetic in post #137 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.
Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.
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Taking post #137 at face value and following it one step further.
I would call the community position on consistent declarations likely rather than established, and I would be comfortable defending that hedge.
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y.rahimi, post #131: I had read the opposite somewhere and cannot now find where, which tells me something. Go to post
Confirming post #138 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.
I would rather post the uncertainty than round it away.
j.vandermolen, post #23: Border outcomes are not predictable at the level of an individual parcel. What is predictable is that consistent, accurate declarations correlate with fewer interventions. It is a small point and it changes the answer, which is an awkward combination. Go to post
Border outcomes are not predictable at the level of an individual parcel. What is predictable is that consistent, accurate declarations correlate with fewer interventions.
If anyone can point at the primary source I would be grateful.
That is the distinction I keep failing to hold on to. Written down now.
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On post #140 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.
Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.
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Norrington, post #6: Fair, and the limits you put on it are the part I will remember. Go to post
The number people quote for consistent declarations is a central estimate presented without its interval, and the interval is wide enough that the estimate is nearly uninformative on its own.
Consistent declarations: I have looked for the primary source twice and failed twice. Either it does not exist or it is somewhere I do not know to look, and I would like to know which.
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Worth separating two things that post #144 runs together.
Careful with the language on consistent declarations. "Not detected" and "not present" are different findings and the first is a statement about the method.
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g.tanaka, post #142: Border outcomes are not predictable at the level of an individual parcel. What is predictable is that consistent, accurate declarations correlate with fewer interventions. If anyone can point at the primary source I would be grateful. Go to post
Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.