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Compounds · Tirzepatide

SURMOUNT-4 and what withdrawal data does and does not tell an individual — one year on

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Solved by m.dalgaard in post #6
Worth separating two things that post #2 runs together. Comparisons between the tirzepatide and semaglutide programmes across trials rather than within one are weak. Different populations, different durations, different baseline characteristics; the only fair comparison is a head-to-head one.

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g.oyelaranTL218 Oct 2025#1

Posting this under the heading it deserves: SURMOUNT-4 and what withdrawal data does and does not tell an individual — one year on Everything below is what sits behind that.

I would like to disagree carefully with the settled view on SURMOUNT-4, and I would like to be argued out of it if the disagreement is bad.

The disagreement is about one step, not about the conclusion. If the step holds I withdraw it entirely.

4 likes 9mo
GT
g.tanakaTL3Regular18 Oct 2025#2

The opening post and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.

What I can speak to on SURMOUNT-4 is narrow, so I will keep it narrow rather than generalising from it. Beyond that boundary I do not know.

8 likes 9mo
MM
m.mwangiTL218 Oct 2025#3

The opening post answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

I would call the community position on SURMOUNT-4 likely rather than established, and I would be comfortable defending that hedge.

27 likes 9mo
DS
d.szymanskiTL3Wiki editor18 Oct 2025#4

SURMOUNT-4's randomised withdrawal design is the strongest available evidence about what happens on stopping. It says nothing about a lower maintenance dose, because the comparison was continue versus placebo rather than continue versus less.

If this contradicts something upthread, the upthread version may well be the better one.

0 likes 9mo
RM
r.mensaTL218 Oct 2025#5

This follows post #4 rather than contradicting it.

Weight reduction figures from SURMOUNT-1 are frequently quoted without the trial's duration attached. A mean change at 72 weeks and a mean change at 40 weeks are different numbers and both circulate.

4 likes 9mo
MD
m.dalgaardTL3Regular Solution18 Oct 2025#6

Worth separating two things that post #2 runs together.

Comparisons between the tirzepatide and semaglutide programmes across trials rather than within one are weak. Different populations, different durations, different baseline characteristics; the only fair comparison is a head-to-head one.

13 likes 9mo
AJ
a.jansenTL218 Oct 2025#7
r.mensa, post #5: This follows post #4 rather than contradicting it. Weight reduction figures from SURMOUNT-1 are frequently quoted without the trial's duration attached. A mean change at 72 weeks and a mean change at 40 weeks are different numbers and both circulate. Go to post

Genuine question rather than a rhetorical one: has anyone here actually observed SURMOUNT-4, as opposed to read about it? The thread is long and I cannot tell.

0 likes in reply to #5 9mo
PR
policy_readerTL2Regular18 Oct 2025#8

Research-use-only tirzepatide is not approved for human use and is not made to pharmaceutical standards. Anyone discussing it here is describing what they did, not recommending it.

It took me longer than it should have to see that.

0 likes 9mo
RZ
r.zielinskiTL218 Oct 2025#9
policy_reader, post #8: Research-use-only tirzepatide is not approved for human use and is not made to pharmaceutical standards. Anyone discussing it here is describing what they did, not recommending it. It took me longer than it should have to see that. Go to post

Picking up post #8: that is the part I would want checked first.

I have no financial interest in anything named in this thread and I want to say so before I comment on SURMOUNT-4, because it is the sort of subject where it matters.

8 likes in reply to #8 9mo
PP
peak_purityTL319 Oct 2025#10
MD
m.dalgaardTL3Regular19 Oct 2025#11
a.jansen, post #7: Genuine question rather than a rhetorical one: has anyone here actually observed SURMOUNT-4, as opposed to read about it? The thread is long and I cannot tell. Go to post

Gastrointestinal effects were comparable in character to the GLP-1 monoagonists across the programme. Individual reports here vary in both directions, which is what you would expect from a between-person difference rather than a between-drug one.

If anyone can point at the primary source I would be grateful.

2 likes in reply to #7 9mo
RM
r.mensaTL219 Oct 2025#12

The 2.5 mg starting dose is a tolerance step and not a therapeutic one. Judging efficacy at that dose is the single commonest reasoning error in this subcategory.

I would rather post the uncertainty than round it away.

0 likes 9mo
NG
np_gilmoreTL3Nurse practitioner19 Oct 2025#13

On post #9 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

The five maintenance doses in the tirzepatide programme give a genuine dose-response curve, which is unusual. Most trials in this space compare one or two doses against placebo and cannot say anything about the shape of the relationship.

28 likes 9mo
NS
no.silvaTL219 Oct 2025#14
np_gilmore, post #13: On post #9 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification. The five maintenance doses in the tirzepatide programme give a genuine dose-response curve, which is unusual. Most trials in this space compare one or two doses against placebo and cannot say anything about the shape of the relationship. Go to post

Reading rather than answering, but this is the post I would point somebody at.

14 likes in reply to #13 9mo
PP
peak_purityTL3Analytical chemist19 Oct 2025#15
m.dalgaard, post #11: Gastrointestinal effects were comparable in character to the GLP-1 monoagonists across the programme. Individual reports here vary in both directions, which is what you would expect from a between-person difference rather than a between-drug one. If anyone can point at the primary source I would be grateful. Go to post

Nausea profile: some people report tirzepatide as less nausea-prone than semaglutide, others report it as more. The trial reported gastrointestinal effects broadly comparable in character. Individual variation is the largest factor.

If the premise is wrong, everything after it is decoration.

5 likes in reply to #11 9mo
SD
s.dialloTL219 Oct 2025#16

Post #13 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.

I read the earlier replies on SURMOUNT-4 twice before writing this, because I had assumed the opposite and wanted to be sure I was disagreeing with what was said rather than what I expected.

0 likes 9mo
OB
owen.bradyTL4 Moderator19 Oct 2025#17

Categorical response thresholds — the proportion reaching ten, fifteen or twenty per cent reduction — are more persuasive and less informative than the mean. They depend entirely on where the threshold was drawn.

I would call that likely rather than established.

0 likes 9mo
CB
c.boatengTL219 Oct 2025#18
g.tanaka, post #2: The opening post and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction. What I can speak to on SURMOUNT-4 is narrow, so I will keep it narrow rather than generalising from it. Beyond that boundary I do not know. Go to post

A note on how SURMOUNT-4 gets discussed rather than on SURMOUNT-4 itself: the confident posts get the replies and the careful ones get ignored, and the careful ones have been right more often.

20 likes in reply to #2 9mo
K
KAnderssonTL3Regular19 Oct 2025#19

Post #17 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.

Reporting rather than recommending, on SURMOUNT-4. What happened is above. Whether it should have is a different question and not one I am qualified to answer.

8 likes 9mo
MI
m.ilungaTL219 Oct 2025#20

Research-use-only tirzepatide is not approved for human use and is not made to pharmaceutical standards. Anyone discussing it here is describing what they did, not recommending it.

2 likes 9mo
VS
vial_slopeTL3Regular19 Oct 2025#21
c.boateng, post #18: A note on how SURMOUNT-4 gets discussed rather than on SURMOUNT-4 itself: the confident posts get the replies and the careful ones get ignored, and the careful ones have been right more often. Go to post

The version of SURMOUNT-4 that circulates here is a simplification of a simplification. It is not wrong, but it has lost the conditions under which it holds, and those conditions are where the interesting cases live.

0 likes in reply to #18 9mo
VM
v.malinowskiTL219 Oct 2025#22

I had written a reply contradicting post #20 and deleted it. Here is what survived.

Practical answer on SURMOUNT-4, since the theoretical one is upthread: do the simplest check first, write down the result, and only then decide whether the complicated explanation is needed. It usually is not.

1 like 9mo
LP
l.parkinsonTL2Member19 Oct 2025#23

Picking up post #22: that is the part I would want checked first.

Heart rate rises modestly across this class, tirzepatide included. It is consistent, small, and worth knowing about rather than worth alarm — and it is one of the reasons the trials monitored it explicitly.

12 likes 9mo
NH
n.hartmannTL219 Oct 2025#24
peak_purity, post #15: Nausea profile: some people report tirzepatide as less nausea-prone than semaglutide, others report it as more. The trial reported gastrointestinal effects broadly comparable in character. Individual variation is the largest factor. If the premise is wrong, everything after it is decoration. Go to post

Reading back through, this was answered upthread and I missed it. My fault.

25 likes in reply to #15 9mo
I
IMainwaringTL3Regular20 Oct 2025#25
n.hartmann, post #24: Reading back through, this was answered upthread and I missed it. My fault. Go to post

Post #22 is the version of this I will quote in future. One addition.

If someone has run SURMOUNT-4 properly I would rather read that than my own reconstruction of it. Posting mine only because the thread has gone quiet.

0 likes in reply to #24 9mo
BA
b.adeyemiTL220 Oct 2025#26

Where I part company with post #25, and it is a narrow parting.

Agreed on SURMOUNT-4, with one qualification that I think matters. The reasoning holds for the case as described. Change the starting assumption and it does not, and the starting assumption is the part nobody states.

4 likes 9mo
N
NLoughranTL3Regular20 Oct 2025#27

SURMOUNT-4 used a randomised withdrawal design: everyone titrated, then those on maintenance were randomised to continue or placebo. Continuation maintained effect; withdrawal was followed by regain. The finding is robust but it says nothing about a lower effective maintenance dose, because that was not studied.

If anyone has run this properly I would rather read that than my own guess.

18 likes 9mo
KK
k.karlsenTL220 Oct 2025#28

Storage and stability: published data on licensed tirzepatide formulations exists and is worth reading directly rather than through summarised claims. Reconstituted preparations in different diluents have not been studied and extrapolation from the licensed formulation is the best you can do.

Not a strong opinion, just a consistent one.

0 likes 9mo
ER
eire_readerTL2Regional · IE20 Oct 2025#29

Post #26 answers the question as asked. The question underneath it is different.

Injection-site reactions were reported at a low but non-zero rate across the trials. The practical point is that a reaction at one site does not predict a reaction at the next, and rotating properly makes the question moot.

26 likes 9mo
AV
ai.vukovicTL220 Oct 2025#30

Research-use-only tirzepatide is not approved for human use and is not made to pharmaceutical standards. Anyone discussing it here is describing what they did, not recommending it.

The honest answer is that it depends, and here is what it depends on.

0 likes 9mo