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Research Methods · N-of-1 designs · continued

Washout with a one-week half-life: the arithmetic posts 61–90

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1.

JF
j.fonsecaTL23 Dec 2024#61
DO
dr_okonkwoTL4 Moderator4 Dec 2024 · edited#62
trough_index, post #41: A washout period between conditions is what stops one bleeding into the next, and its length should be set by the half-life rather than by convenience. Go to post

Bookmarking this. I will come back when I have something worth adding.

32 likes in reply to #41 20mo
CG
c.grimaldiTL24 Dec 2024#63

Washout sits at the boundary between what this community can usefully discuss and what it cannot, and I think it falls on the discussable side, narrowly.

11 likes 20mo
CC
c.cardosoTL24 Dec 2024#64

Post #63 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

Trying to state the washout position in a way that someone who disagrees would recognise as fair, because I do not think the version in this thread passes that test.

3 likes 20mo
ML
m.lehtinenTL24 Dec 2024#65
Norrington, post #51: Adding the measurement that post #48 says would settle it. Objective versus subjective measures: subjective measures (how you feel) are vulnerable to bias. Objective measures (weight, strength on a specific exercise) are less vulnerable but not immune. Go to post

Post #63 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.

Committing to post the result before you know it is a useful precommitment, and this subcategory is a reasonable place to make it.

Worth saying I have only my own numbers here, and n is small.

0 likes in reply to #51 20mo
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n.nybergTL24 Dec 2024#66
ma.nascimento, post #37: Stopping rules: decide in advance when you will stop measuring (after a defined duration, after a defined number of measurements, or after a defined condition is met). Not deciding in advance means stopping when the result satisfies you, which is bias. Go to post

Adding the measurement that post #63 says would settle it.

An honest declaration on washout: I have a prior here and it is strong enough that you should weight what I say downward. Stating it rather than hiding it.

24 likes in reply to #37 20mo
CL
c.lundgrenTL24 Dec 2024#67

Having read the whole washout thread before replying: the question in the first post has not actually been answered yet, and three of us have answered a nearby one instead.

7 likes 20mo
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h.eriksenTL25 Dec 2024#68

Generalisability: a robust n-of-1 result applies to you. It does not tell you much about whether the effect generalises to others similar to you, much less to people different from you.

1 like 20mo
FW
f.weissTL25 Dec 2024#69
r.mwangi, post #7: Generalisability: a robust n-of-1 result applies to you. It does not tell you much about whether the effect generalises to others similar to you, much less to people different from you. Happy to expand any of that if it is the useful part. Go to post

Washout periods: after stopping a medication, how long does it take for the effect to wash out? For compounds with a week-long half-life, roughly a month is needed to reach baseline. Using that washout period in a before-after design strengthens the inference.

3 likes in reply to #7 20mo
CL
customs_ledgerTL35 Dec 2024#70
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OkaforTL3Regular5 Dec 2024#71

The arithmetic in post #69 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

Nobody has said the unglamorous part of washout yet, so: most of the variation is explained by things that are boring to write about and easy to check.

1 like 20mo
ID
il.dumitruTL25 Dec 2024#72

Order effects matter. If you always try A before B, you cannot separate the treatment from the sequence, and alternating is cheap.

That distinction has done more work for me than anything else in this category.

7 likes 20mo
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g.haalandTL3Regular5 Dec 2024 · edited#73

A rolling mean over several days is far more informative than any single reading for anything that varies day to day, which is nearly everything.

25 likes 20mo
EC
e.coelhoTL26 Dec 2024#74
Norrington, post #51: Adding the measurement that post #48 says would settle it. Objective versus subjective measures: subjective measures (how you feel) are vulnerable to bias. Objective measures (weight, strength on a specific exercise) are less vulnerable but not immune. Go to post

Post #72 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.

Reading back through the washout threads from last year, the same three questions come up every time and only one of them has ever been answered properly. That seems like a documentation gap rather than a knowledge gap.

0 likes in reply to #51 20mo
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MJayawardenaTL3Regular6 Dec 2024#75

Adding the measurement that post #74 says would settle it.

The question underneath washout is usually "how would I tell?" rather than "what is true?", and that one has a method attached to it.

Write down what you would expect to see under each hypothesis before you collect anything. If they predict the same observation, collecting it will not help.

4 likes 20mo
DN
d.nilsenTL26 Dec 2024#76

Right — I had this wrong and I am glad to have read it before it mattered.

12 likes 20mo
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OTeixeiraTL3Regular6 Dec 2024#77

Sample size in n-of-1: you are the sample. Repeated measurements (weekly weighings, daily mood scores) increase the power to detect a real effect even though n=1.

That much is documented. The rest is how I have interpreted it.

0 likes 20mo
FI
f.ibarraTL26 Dec 2024#78
LJankowiak, post #45: On post #41 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification. An observation about washout that I cannot explain and am posting anyway, on the principle that unexplained observations are more useful public than private. Go to post

Objective versus subjective measures: subjective measures (how you feel) are vulnerable to bias. Objective measures (weight, strength on a specific exercise) are less vulnerable but not immune.

0 likes in reply to #45 20mo
GI
g.ibarraTL26 Dec 2024#79
r.frisk, post #18: Everything in post #14 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have. Washout was covered in the wiki last year and the page has a review date on it, which is a better starting point than my memory of a thread. Go to post

A photograph or a device reading is a harder record than a recollection, and where one is available it should be the record.

0 likes in reply to #18 20mo
SC
s.cardosoTL27 Dec 2024#80

I read post #77 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Where I have landed on washout, having got it wrong once in public: the direction is clear, the magnitude is not, and anyone quoting a precise magnitude has borrowed it from somewhere that did not measure it.

2 likes 20mo
RM
r.marsdenTL3Regular7 Dec 2024#81
il.dumitru, post #72: Order effects matter. If you always try A before B, you cannot separate the treatment from the sequence, and alternating is cheap. That distinction has done more work for me than anything else in this category. Go to post

An n of one tells you about one person, which is the person you are most interested in. That is the whole value and it is not nothing.

Happy to be the one who is wrong here if it settles the question.

0 likes in reply to #72 20mo
FF
f.fontaineTL27 Dec 2024#82
taper_file, post #55: The arithmetic in post #53 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check. It does not tell you about anybody else, which is why aggregating these accounts does not produce evidence of the kind people want it to. That is one dataset and I would not build a rule on it. Go to post

If someone has run washout properly I would rather read that than my own reconstruction of it. Posting mine only because the thread has gone quiet.

31 likes in reply to #55 20mo
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LeitermanTL3Regular7 Dec 2024#83

Two people in this thread mean different things by washout and are disagreeing about the definition while believing they are disagreeing about the facts. Worth pausing to define it.

16 likes 20mo
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n.serranoTL27 Dec 2024#84

Fine by me. I had wanted a stronger conclusion and there is not one available.

6 likes 20mo
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BBramleyTL3Regular7 Dec 2024#85
c.lundgren, post #67: Having read the whole washout thread before replying: the question in the first post has not actually been answered yet, and three of us have answered a nearby one instead. Go to post

Everything in post #81 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.

Generalisability: a robust n-of-1 result applies to you. It does not tell you much about whether the effect generalises to others similar to you, much less to people different from you.

That matches what I was told, which is not the same as knowing it.

0 likes in reply to #67 20mo
GE
g.ekstromTL28 Dec 2024 · edited#86
integrator_trace, post #49: On washout, I would rather understate and be corrected upward than overstate and be quoted. That is a house style here and it is a good one. Go to post

Stopping rules: decide in advance when you will stop measuring (after a defined duration, after a defined number of measurements, or after a defined condition is met). Not deciding in advance means stopping when the result satisfies you, which is bias.

A weak preference rather than a position.

23 likes in reply to #49 20mo
JH
j.habermannTL3Regular8 Dec 2024#87

Genuine question rather than a rhetorical one: has anyone here actually observed washout, as opposed to read about it? The thread is long and I cannot tell.

11 likes 20mo
KO
k.okaforTL28 Dec 2024#88

Practical answer on washout, since the theoretical one is upthread: do the simplest check first, write down the result, and only then decide whether the complicated explanation is needed. It usually is not.

3 likes 20mo
RH
revision_historyTL3Wiki editor8 Dec 2024#89

Answering the question post #85 raises rather than the one it answers.

Committing to post the result before you know it is a useful precommitment, and this subcategory is a reasonable place to make it.

Written in the hope of being told what I have missed.

3 likes 20mo
EM
e.mbekiTL28 Dec 2024#90
g.ibarra, post #79: A photograph or a device reading is a harder record than a recollection, and where one is available it should be the record. Go to post

The arithmetic in post #89 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

Washout is a question about a distribution, not about a value, and treating it as a value is what produces the confident wrong answers.

0 likes in reply to #79 20mo