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Outcomes · Progress reports

A plateau that disappeared when I changed how I measured

JH
j.hartmannTL23 Dec 2025#1

Posting this under the heading it deserves: A plateau that disappeared when I changed how I measured Everything below is what sits behind that.

I was wrong about plateau in a thread last spring and I would like to correct it publicly rather than quietly.

The error was in the units, which changed the conclusion by an order of magnitude. Setting out the corrected version, and the way I now check for that class of mistake.

31 likes 8mo
W
WoodhouseTL2Member12 Dec 2025#2

Coming back to the opening post, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

Taking plateau seriously for a moment rather than deflecting: the honest position is that the community has observations and no controlled comparison, and those two things support very different sentences.

32 likes 7mo
ZV
z.vogelTL219 Dec 2025#3
j.hartmann, post #1: Posting this under the heading it deserves: A plateau that disappeared when I changed how I measured Everything below is what sits behind that. I was wrong about plateau in a thread last spring and I would like to correct it publicly rather than quietly. The error was in the units, which changed the conclusion by an order of magnitude.… Go to post

Reading back through the plateau threads from last year, the same three questions come up every time and only one of them has ever been answered properly. That seems like a documentation gap rather than a knowledge gap.

1 like in reply to #1 7mo
DW
diluent_watchTL2Member25 Dec 2025#4
Woodhouse, post #2: Coming back to the opening post, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer. Taking plateau seriously for a moment rather than deflecting: the honest position is that the community has observations and no controlled comparison, and those two things support very different sentences. Go to post

Rate of change matters more than the absolute number for most of the questions people ask about their own series.

That is what the documentation says. What happens in practice is usually close.

6 likes in reply to #2 7mo
ZA
z.adeyemiTL230 Dec 2025 · edited#5

Confirming post #4 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.

My experience of plateau contradicts the reply above. I am posting it as a data point rather than as a refutation, because one person's experience is exactly that.

23 likes 7mo
EL
endpoint_lineTL3Regular4 Jan 2026#6

What I would want before treating plateau as settled: the method, the sample, and whether anyone tried to find the opposite result. Two of the three are usually missing.

0 likes 7mo
SK
s.kravchenkoTL29 Jan 2026#7
GF
gradient_fileTL2Member13 Jan 2026#8
diluent_watch, post #4: Rate of change matters more than the absolute number for most of the questions people ask about their own series. That is what the documentation says. What happens in practice is usually close. Go to post

Non-scale victories: muscle gain or maintenance, clothing fit, energy level, and capability (like climbing stairs without breathlessness) are measurements that scale-based weight misses.

I would put a moderate confidence on that and no more.

11 likes in reply to #4 6mo
HJ
h.jansenTL218 Jan 2026#9

I would put moderate confidence on the mainstream reading of plateau and no more. That is not scepticism for its own sake; it is where the sourcing actually stops.

31 likes 6mo
EF
erratum_fileTL3Regular22 Jan 2026#10

On plateau: the maintained page in the documentation commons covers the general case with citations and a review date, which is more reliable than any reply here including this one.

0 likes 6mo
CD
cannula_driftTL3Regular27 Jan 2026#11

On post #9 — agreed on the reasoning, with one qualification.

Recording the dose alongside the weight makes the series interpretable later. Without it a plateau at a stable dose and a plateau during escalation look identical.

This has been discussed before and I could not find the thread, so, again.

8 likes 6mo
LD
l.dialloTL231 Jan 2026#12

Seconded. It reads as careful rather than confident, which is the right register.

2 likes 6mo
CI
c.inglethorpeTL3Regular4 Feb 2026#13

Two claims get bundled together under plateau and they need separating. The descriptive one — this is what was observed — is usually well supported. The causal one — this is why — usually is not.

Almost every disagreement in threads like this one dissolves once you say which of the two you are making.

0 likes 6mo
HB
h.bhattacharyaTL28 Feb 2026#14
c.inglethorpe, post #13: Two claims get bundled together under plateau and they need separating. The descriptive one — this is what was observed — is usually well supported. The causal one — this is why — usually is not. Almost every disagreement in threads like this one dissolves once you say which of the two you are making. Go to post

Seasonal patterns: some people report weight loss is slower in winter than summer. Body composition and activity changes might contribute. Noting the season is useful context.

I have left out the parts I could not verify.

27 likes in reply to #13 6mo
C
CSagredoTL3Regular12 Feb 2026 · edited#15

Post #13 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.

Where the plateau reasoning breaks down for me is the step from the group result to the individual case. That step is almost never argued for.

13 likes 5mo
HR
h.ramosTL216 Feb 2026#16

I think the plateau question is answerable and has not been answered, which is a more optimistic position than most of this thread.

4 likes 5mo
OA
o.abrahamsenTL320 Feb 2026#17
MN
m.nwosuTL223 Feb 2026#18
j.hartmann, post #1: Posting this under the heading it deserves: A plateau that disappeared when I changed how I measured Everything below is what sits behind that. I was wrong about plateau in a thread last spring and I would like to correct it publicly rather than quietly. The error was in the units, which changed the conclusion by an order of magnitude.… Go to post

Confirming post #16 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.

A note on scope: what I am saying about plateau applies to the case in the first post and I would not extend it further without checking.

0 likes in reply to #1 5mo
BO
b.oseiTL227 Feb 2026#19

Understood. Thank you for being specific about the limits of it.

19 likes 5mo
SB
s.bruunTL23 Mar 2026#20

Menstrual cycle: for people who menstruate, weight can shift by several pounds across the cycle due to fluid retention and other factors. Noting cycle phase when weighing reduces apparent noise.

Worth checking against a second source before it gets quoted onward.

8 likes 5mo
SO
s.ostergaardTL26 Mar 2026#21

Two people in this thread mean different things by plateau and are disagreeing about the definition while believing they are disagreeing about the facts. Worth pausing to define it.

11 likes 5mo
BV
bias_varianceTL4Biostatistician10 Mar 2026#22
h.ramos, post #16: I think the plateau question is answerable and has not been answered, which is a more optimistic position than most of this thread. Go to post

Thank you — that answers what I came here to find out.

24 likes in reply to #16 5mo
HD
h.delgadoTL214 Mar 2026#23
Woodhouse, post #2: Coming back to the opening post, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer. Taking plateau seriously for a moment rather than deflecting: the honest position is that the community has observations and no controlled comparison, and those two things support very different sentences. Go to post

Include what else changed. Training, illness, travel and a different scale all appear in a series as if they were treatment effects.

0 likes in reply to #2 4mo
IT
impurity_tableTL3Analytical chemist17 Mar 2026 · edited#24

I read post #20 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

Practical answer on plateau, since the theoretical one is upthread: do the simplest check first, write down the result, and only then decide whether the complicated explanation is needed. It usually is not.

3 likes 4mo
AI
a.iyerTL221 Mar 2026#25

Marking my uncertainty on plateau explicitly. I am confident about the direction, much less confident about the size, and not confident at all that it generalises past the case in the first post.

16 likes 4mo
RM
r.mcalisterTL3Regular24 Mar 2026#26

The best progress reports here read as records rather than as arguments, and that difference is visible within a sentence.

32 likes 4mo
MS
m.steinerTL228 Mar 2026#27
z.adeyemi, post #5: Confirming post #4 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person. My experience of plateau contradicts the reply above. I am posting it as a data point rather than as a refutation, because one person's experience is exactly that. Go to post

Post #26 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

Agreed on plateau, with one qualification that I think matters. The reasoning holds for the case as described. Change the starting assumption and it does not, and the starting assumption is the part nobody states.

1 like in reply to #5 4mo
FD
f.demirTL2Regular31 Mar 2026#28

Coming back to post #24, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

Include what else changed. Training, illness, travel and a different scale all appear in a series as if they were treatment effects.

The short version is the first sentence; the rest is why.

6 likes 4mo
SD
s.dziedzicTL23 Apr 2026 · edited#29
s.bruun, post #20: Menstrual cycle: for people who menstruate, weight can shift by several pounds across the cycle due to fluid retention and other factors. Noting cycle phase when weighing reduces apparent noise. Worth checking against a second source before it gets quoted onward. Go to post

Reading rather than contributing, but this is the most useful thread I have found on it.

4 likes in reply to #20 4mo
SC
so.cardosoTL27 Apr 2026#30
m.steiner, post #27: Post #26 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit. Agreed on plateau, with one qualification that I think matters. The reasoning holds for the case as described. Change the starting assumption and it does not, and the starting assumption is the part nobody states. Go to post

Post #28 put the caveat in the right place and I want to underline it.

A plateau over two weeks is usually measurement. A plateau over two months is usually energy balance. The timescale is what distinguishes them.

12 likes in reply to #27 4mo