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Evidence · Preprints · continued

When a preprint is the best available evidence and we say so posts 31–60

This is a continuation of a long topic, addressed by post number rather than by page. Start at post 1 · go to the accepted answer.

SD
s.dialloTL27 Aug 2025#31

Coming back to post #27, because the follow-up matters more than the original answer.

Where numbers change between preprint and published version, the changes are not random. They tend toward a smaller effect and a more carefully hedged claim.

That is all the detail I have. Someone else will have more.

19 likes 12mo
OB
owen.bradyTL4 Moderator7 Aug 2025#32
n.ramos, post #19: I keep a log for preprint specifically because my memory of it turned out to be systematically wrong in one direction. Six weeks of notes cost nothing and settled it. Go to post

Post #31 is right about the mechanism and I think understates the practical bit.

Say it is a preprint in the first line rather than the last. Everything downstream depends on that status and readers arriving from search will not scroll for it.

I am describing what is, rather than arguing for what should be.

8 likes in reply to #19 12mo
NS
no.silvaTL27 Aug 2025#33

Check whether it was later published: searching for the preprint's first author and keywords in PubMed might find a published version. The published version is the stronger citation if it exists.

I would want a second opinion before relying on that.

0 likes 12mo
PP
peak_purityTL3Analytical chemist8 Aug 2025#34

Building anything durable on a preprint means committing to rebuild it. That is a reasonable trade for a fast-moving question and it should be an explicit one.

0 likes 12mo
RL
r.laurentTL28 Aug 2025#35
m.agyeman, post #25: Building on post #22 rather than restating it. Author track record is a weak signal and it is a signal. A group that has published carefully for years is a different prior from an unknown one. Go to post

Following, with nothing to contribute beyond having asked the same thing elsewhere.

13 likes in reply to #25 12mo
EV
e.verhoevenTL28 Aug 2025#36
bias_variance, post #18: The arithmetic in post #17 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check. Reading a preprint properly means doing some of the reviewer's job: methods first, then whether the analysis matches the plan, then the conclusion. This is the version I would want a new member to read first. Go to post

Confirming post #34 from a second method, which matters more than confirming it from a second person.

Server repositories: medRxiv for medicine, bioRxiv for biology. Preprints on these servers are time-stamped and have DOIs even if they are later published elsewhere. Citing the preprint with its DOI is appropriate while noting it is unpublished.

The short answer was in the first line; everything after is the working.

4 likes in reply to #18 12mo
CB
c.boatengTL29 Aug 2025#37

Post #36 describes the usual case. This is about the unusual one.

Reading this preprint thread as someone who came in with a fixed view: the third and seventh replies moved me and the confident ones did not.

0 likes 12mo
MP
mira.patelTL4 Admin9 Aug 2025#38

Where a preprint contradicts a published trial, the prior should favour the trial. Where it extends one, the preprint can be genuinely useful.

Anyone with a larger sample, please post it.

27 likes 12mo
DB
d.bakkerTL29 Aug 2025#39

Version numbers on a preprint server matter. Citing version one of something now on version four is citing a document that has been superseded by its own authors.

Posting it because the silence on this was starting to look like agreement.

0 likes 12mo
AA
a.asanteTL29 Aug 2025#40

Do not build anything on a preprint that you would mind rebuilding: if the preprint later changes substantially in revision or shows different results when published, your reasoning based on the preprint needs to be revised.

18 likes 12mo
AV
a.villalobosTL210 Aug 2025#41
D
DSakamotoTL3Regular10 Aug 2025#42
d.bakker, post #39: Version numbers on a preprint server matter. Citing version one of something now on version four is citing a document that has been superseded by its own authors. Posting it because the silence on this was starting to look like agreement. Go to post

Where I part company with post #38, and it is a narrow parting.

A preprint reporting a null result is more likely to stay a preprint, which biases the published literature and makes preprint servers more valuable rather than less.

I would hold that lightly until someone with a larger sample weighs in.

0 likes in reply to #39 12mo
AM
a.molnarTL210 Aug 2025#43

Always label it as a preprint in any discussion. A preprint is not a published trial and it is not settled knowledge. Use it for hypothesis generation and for understanding emerging evidence, not for drawing definitive conclusions.

1 like 12mo
BT
baseline_tableTL2Member11 Aug 2025#44

How to cite a preprint: author last name, first initial, et al. Title. Server name [preprint]. Posted date. Doi. Include the server name and note that it is a preprint.

It cost nothing to check and would have cost something not to.

6 likes 12mo
TB
t.brandtTL211 Aug 2025#45

Peer review catches some things reliably — missing methods, unsupported conclusions, statistical mistakes of the obvious kind — and misses others routinely. Knowing which is which makes preprint reading easier.

Adding it in case it saves somebody the afternoon it cost me.

16 likes 12mo
DM
d.magalhesTL2Member11 Aug 2025#46
mira.patel, post #38: Where a preprint contradicts a published trial, the prior should favour the trial. Where it extends one, the preprint can be genuinely useful. Anyone with a larger sample, please post it. Go to post

If you cite a preprint in a maintained document here, the convention is to label it in the sentence and to note the check date. The document review will catch the update.

I would not lead a decision with this, but I would not ignore it either.

32 likes in reply to #38 12mo
AC
a.coelhoTL212 Aug 2025#47
micrograms, post #4: Where the preprint reasoning breaks down for me is the step from the group result to the individual case. That step is almost never argued for. Go to post

Narrowing post #44, because the general version has more than one answer.

Where a preprint's numbers are the basis of a claim being repeated here, someone should check whether the published version exists yet. That check is nearly always overdue.

0 likes in reply to #4 12mo
CW
cohort_watchTL2Member12 Aug 2025 · edited#48

No disagreement from me. Posting only so the question does not look ignored.

3 likes 12mo
VS
v.stanescuTL212 Aug 2025 · edited#49
t.brandt, post #45: Peer review catches some things reliably — missing methods, unsupported conclusions, statistical mistakes of the obvious kind — and misses others routinely. Knowing which is which makes preprint reading easier. Adding it in case it saves somebody the afternoon it cost me. Go to post

Taking post #47 at face value and following it one step further.

Screening on a preprint server is minimal and is not review. It filters obvious problems and nothing more, which is what it is designed to do.

11 likes in reply to #45 12mo
N
NicolaidesTL3Regular12 Aug 2025#50
sourced_claims, post #8: Do not build anything on a preprint that you would mind rebuilding: if the preprint later changes substantially in revision or shows different results when published, your reasoning based on the preprint needs to be revised. Go to post

Sample size and pre-registration are checkable in a preprint exactly as in a paper, and they carry the same weight.

24 likes in reply to #8 11mo
AF
a.friskTL213 Aug 2025 · edited#51

I read post #49 twice before replying, because I had assumed the opposite.

What changes between preprint and publication: authors respond to reviewer comments, re-analyse data, correct errors found in peer review, and sometimes report different results from updated analyses. The published version is not the same as the preprint.

15 likes 11mo
TN
t.ndiayeTL213 Aug 2025#52

Reading a preprint properly means doing some of the reviewer's job: methods first, then whether the analysis matches the plan, then the conclusion.

That has been true for the cases I have seen and I have not seen many.

6 likes 11mo
TD
t.demirTL213 Aug 2025#53
DSakamoto, post #42: Where I part company with post #38, and it is a narrow parting. A preprint reporting a null result is more likely to stay a preprint, which biases the published literature and makes preprint servers more valuable rather than less. I would hold that lightly until someone with a larger sample weighs in. Go to post

Clear enough that I do not think I have a follow-up, which is unusual.

1 like in reply to #42 11mo
K
KTurkingtonTL3Regular14 Aug 2025#54

Taking post #52 at face value and following it one step further.

The honest position on most preprints in this field is that they are interesting and provisional, and that saying both is not fence-sitting.

0 likes 11mo
CB
c.bakkerTL214 Aug 2025#55

Everything in post #54 holds. The case it does not cover is the one I have.

Retractions and corrections do not propagate well from preprint servers. A citation that was fine when made can quietly become wrong.

10 likes 11mo
JN
j.nascimentoTL214 Aug 2025#56

Narrowing post #54, because the general version has more than one answer.

Say it is a preprint in the first line rather than the last. Everything downstream depends on that status and readers arriving from search will not scroll for it.

3 likes 11mo
CR
c.rasmussenTL214 Aug 2025#57
d.bakker, post #39: Version numbers on a preprint server matter. Citing version one of something now on version four is citing a document that has been superseded by its own authors. Posting it because the silence on this was starting to look like agreement. Go to post

A preprint with the data and code attached is frequently more checkable than a published paper without them. Reviewed and reproducible are different properties.

A modest claim, modestly supported.

0 likes in reply to #39 11mo
EL
e.lokkenTL215 Aug 2025#58
NL
ne.laurentTL215 Aug 2025#59

Adding a reference point for preprint. Mine is a single case, collected without controls, and I am posting the method alongside it so it can be discounted appropriately.

6 likes 11mo
L
LJankowiakTL3Regular15 Aug 2025#60

The arithmetic in post #57 is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check.

A preprint that has been up for two years without appearing in a journal is telling you something, and it is not necessarily that the work is bad.

The honest answer is that it depends, and here is what it depends on.

1 like 11mo