What a seizure notice actually says posts 31–41

Peak periods and public holidays affect this more than any other factor and are entirely predictable in advance.

I looked this up rather than remembered it, which is the right order.

The most useful thing anyone has posted about seizure notice in this category was a table of what had been measured and by whom. That is what I would want again.

This follows post #32 rather than contradicting it.

Where the seizure notice reasoning breaks down for me is the step from the group result to the individual case. That step is almost never argued for.

Worth separating two things that post #30 runs together.

Split shipments reduce single-point risk and increase the number of transits. Which trade is right depends on what you are protecting against.

Two claims get bundled together under seizure notice and they need separating. The descriptive one — this is what was observed — is usually well supported. The causal one — this is why — usually is not.

Almost every disagreement in threads like this one dissolves once you say which of the two you are making.

Anyone deciding whether a delay is a problem should ask what would change if they waited another week. Usually the answer is nothing.

The honest answer is that it depends, and here is what it depends on.

I would rather this thread reach "we do not know" about seizure notice than reach a confident answer that nobody can support when asked.

Post #34 and I disagree about the size of the effect, not about the direction.

On seizure notice, the part that usually goes wrong is that the question is asked as though it has one answer. It has a range, and the width of the range is the interesting bit.

If you can post the two or three numbers you are working from, several people here will check the arithmetic rather than argue about the conclusion.

This is the sort of exchange that makes the archive worth searching.

Import restrictions by jurisdiction: what is legal to import for personal use varies enormously by country. Some jurisdictions are quite permissive; others are not. Checking your own country's rules before ordering is prudent.

Source for the seizure notice figure, since it was asked for. It is in the discussion rather than the abstract, which is why the version circulating is stronger than the paper is.

Reading the surrounding paragraph is worth the two minutes. The authors are more careful than their summarisers.