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Topic summary

Confounding by indication, explained with a concrete example

This is a generated summary. It shows the 5 most-liked posts from a topic of 26, in their original order, with the accepted answer included where one exists. It is a reading aid and it will miss nuance — the full topic is the record.
SB
s.bruunTL230 Aug 2025#4

Hold a trial to the standard something could actually have met. A criticism that no achievable design could have answered is a criticism of the field rather than of the paper.

17 likes 11mo
CD
c.delgadoTL230 Aug 2025 · edited#5

Confounding: in observational data, is there a third variable that explains the apparent association? In randomised data, randomisation should balance unknown confounders, though known confounders can be adjusted for.

If the premise is wrong, everything after it is decoration.

32 likes 11mo
IB
i.brobergTL21 Sep 2025#13
to.varga, post #1: On the subject in the title: Confounding by indication, explained with a concrete example Working notes rather than a conclusion. Comparing SURMOUNT-1 ( N Engl J Med , 2022) with SURPASS-2 ( N Engl J Med , 2021) and finding the comparison harder than it looks. Different populations, different durations, different endpoints defined… Go to post

Generalisability: do the inclusion/exclusion criteria narrow the population so much that results do not apply to real people asking about it? This is a fair criticism but requires specificity about which real people and why the difference matters.

The conclusion is tentative; the arithmetic underneath it is not.

26 likes in reply to #1 11mo
V
VThorvaldsenTL3Regular1 Sep 2025#14

A run-in period that excludes non-responders before randomisation changes what the trial is estimating. It is legitimate design and it must be stated in any summary.

The step people skip is the one I have spelled out.

12 likes 11mo
KC
k.chukwuTL23 Sep 2025#24
b.demir, post #3: The arithmetic in the opening post is right; the assumption feeding it is the part to check. The pre-specified endpoint being a weaker proxy than you would like is a real criticism. It is a smaller one than saying the result was chosen after the fact. Go to post

Attrition is the failure mode most likely to invalidate a result and the least likely to be discussed. Differential attrition between arms is the specific thing to look for.

21 likes in reply to #3 11mo

Read the full topic (26 posts)

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